IMPROVING THE METHODOLOGY FOR ASSESSING THE SHADOW ECONOMY TO INCREASE LOCAL BUDGET REVENUES
Keywords:
shadow economy, local budget revenue, tax gap, informal sector, MIMIC model, revenue administration, digital payments, tax compliance, subnational finance, Uzbekistan.Abstract
This article develops an integrated methodology for measuring shadow economic activity that erodes local tax bases and weakens subnational fiscal autonomy. The proposed framework combines national-accounts adjustments, tax-gap analysis, labor-input discrepancies, cash-intensity indicators, digital transaction traces, taxpayer segmentation, and a regionally weighted composite shadow-exposure index using 2021-2025 information. The methodology improves policy usefulness by connecting estimated hidden activity with assignable local revenue potential, uncertainty intervals, sectoral risk maps, and measurable formalization priorities.
References
Republic of Uzbekistan. (2019). Tax Code of the Republic of Uzbekistan, with amendments through 2025. National Database of Legislation, Lex.uz.
Ministry of Economy and Finance of the Republic of Uzbekistan. (2025). Citizens' Budget and subnational budget execution materials for 2021-2025. Tashkent.
Azamjonov, U. (2026). IMPROVING FISCAL MONITORING MECHANISMS FOR REDUCING HIDDEN RECEIPTS IN TRADE AND SERVICE SECTORS TO EXPAND THE LOCAL TAX BASE. International Conference on Multidisciplinary Science, 4(4), 39–48. https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.19698656
Azamjonov Ulug'bek. (2026). NORASMIY IQTISODIY FAOLIYATNI RASMIY SEKTORGA O'TKAZISH ORQALI MAHALLIY BYUDJET DAROMAD BAZASINI KENGAYTIRISHNING SOLIQ MEXANIZMLARINI TAKOMILLASHTIRISH. SYNAPSES: INSIGHTS ACROSS THE DISCIPLINES, 3(4), 308–321. https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.19712690
Azamjonov, U. (2026). YASHIRIN IQTISODIYOTDAN KELIB CHIQADIGAN SOLIQ YO'QOTISHLARINI KAMAYTIRISHDA IDORALARARO RAQAMLI AXBOROT ALMASHINUVI MEXANIZMLARINI TAKOMILLASHTIRISH. ACUMEN: INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF MULTIDISCIPLINARY RESEARCH, 3(4), 606–621. https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.19711053
Azamjonov, U. (2026). MAHALLIY BYUDJET DAROMADLARINI OSHIRISHDA RAQAMLI SOLIQ MA'MURIYATCHILIGI SERVISLARINING IXTIYORIY TO'LOV INTIZOMIGA TA'SIRINI BAHOLASH. МЕДИЦИНА, ПЕДАГОГИКА И ТЕХНОЛОГИЯ: ТЕОРИЯ И ПРАКТИКА, 4(4), 139–151. https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.19706798
Azamjonov, U. (2026). IMPROVING THE MECHANISM FOR REDUCING TAX ARREARS THROUGH ACCOUNTS RECEIVABLE IN ENHANCING LOCAL BUDGET REVENUES. Multidisciplinary Journal of Science and Technology, 6(4), 359–373. https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.19670898
Usmonjon o‘g, A. U. B. li, Azamov Avazbek Akmal o ‘g ‘li, Abdinazarov Suxrob O ‘tkir o ‘g ‘li, & Abdug ‘aniyev Doniyor Xonimqul o ‘g ‘li.(2023). Structural Reforms and Their Problems In Providing Sustainable Economic Growth. Excellencia: International Multi-Disciplinary Journal of Education (2994-9521), 1 (3), 83-93.
Usmonjon o‘g, A. U. B. li, Abdurasulov Muhammadali Abdurashid o ‘g ‘li, Amanbayev Javohir Anvarovich, & Bekmurodov Behruz Akmal o ‘g ‘li.(2023). Labor Management in the System of Market Relations. Excellencia: International Multi-Disciplinary Journal of Education (2994-9521), 1 (3), 99-109.
Usmonjon o‘g, A. U. B. li.(2023). THEORETICAL BASIS OF FOOD SUPPLY AND SECURITY. American Journal of Public Diplomacy and International Studies (2993-2157), 1(9), 424-429.
OO‘G‘Li, Azamjonov U. U., et al. "Distribution OF Powers AND Management Decisions in Management." Repository Antis Publisher, 26 May. 2026.
Azamjonov, U. (2026). IMPROVING THE METHODOLOGY FOR THE INTEGRAL ASSESSMENT OF REGIONAL TAX RISK FROM THE SHADOW ECONOMY TO INCREASE LOCAL BUDGET REVENUES. JOURNAL OF MULTIDISCIPLINARY BULLETIN, 9(02), 128–137. https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.19674711
Azamjonov, U. (2026). METHODOLOGICAL APPROACHES TO THE ECONOMETRIC ASSESSMENT OF LOCAL BUDGET REVENUE GROWTH THROUGH THE LEGALIZATION OF THE SHADOW ECONOMY. JOURNAL OF LAW AND ECONOMICS, 9(02), 43–52. https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.19676098
Azamjonov Ulug'bek. (2026). HUDUDLARNI FISKAL SALOHIYATI VA XAVF DARAJASI BO'YICHA DIFFERENSIAL BOSHQARISH ASOSIDA SOLIQ MA'MURIYATCHILIGINI TAKOMILLASHTIRISH. Journal of Universal Science Research, 4(4), 104–118. https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.19742623
Azamjonov, U. (2026). IMPROVING A WARNING-BASED REGIONAL TAX CONTROL MECHANISM FOR RAISING LOCAL BUDGET REVENUES. INTERNATIONAL SCIENTIFIC INNOVATION RESEARCH CONFERENCE, 3(3), 3–15. https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.19698605
